It’s a bold claim, but recent data from CoreLogic* suggests that if current trends hold, it’s not entirely out of the question.
According to the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ), if Brisbane continues growing at 9.7 per cent annually and Sydney lags behind at 1.1 per cent, the Sunshine State capital could overtake the Harbour City by 2029.
But, REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella is urging caution, describing the scenario as speculative at best.
“While it’s an exciting prospect to see Brisbane’s property market perform so strongly, it’s important to understand that, like all crystal ball gazing, the possibility of Brisbane surpassing Sydney in median house prices is a hypothetical scenario,” Ms Mercorella said.
“This is based on a projection extrapolating current growth rates, not a forecast, and depends on a range of economic and market factors.”
Brisbane has been riding a wave of demand since the pandemic, boosted by the announcement that it will host the 2032 Olympic Games.
With billions set to pour into major infrastructure projects, industry insiders are tipping a major lift in both liveability and long-term property values, especially in areas close to key Olympic sites.
“Brisbane’s recent growth, particularly in the wake of COVID and the Olympics announcement, reflects an extraordinary, upward trajectory,” Ms Mercorella said.
“The combination of major infrastructure projects, including those related to the Olympic Games, will create significant improvements in connectivity and liveability for Brisbane and southeast Queensland.”
She added that the long-term benefits are expected to fuel continued real estate growth not only in the inner city but across the broader regions as well.
And there’s historical precedent too. Ms Mercorella said that when Sydney hosted the Olympics in 2000, its median house price surged by a staggering 88 per cent in the five years to 2001.
“However, property price growth of Olympic host cities has varied wildly, each with unique economic contexts, so this is not a reliable benchmark.”
The other big factor? Income. While Brisbane may be booming, Sydney’s property prices are underpinned by stronger average earnings and a concentration of high-paying jobs in finance and professional services.
“Realistically, the gap between Brisbane and Sydney is driven by several factors, including average income levels,” Ms Mercorella said.
“Sydney’s higher proportion of high-income earners and its dominant financial and professional services sectors play a significant role in supporting its property prices.”
Still, Ms Mercorella isn’t ruling anything out. In fact, she points out that not long ago, few believed Brisbane could leapfrog Melbourne — but it has.
“It’s also worth noting that not that long ago, it seemed unfathomable to many that Brisbane would overtake Melbourne in property prices, yet this has now occurred — we have become the second-most expensive city in Australia,” she said.
“So, the possibility of Brisbane property prices ‘pulling a Bradbury’ over Sydney as well, remains to be seen.”
But while some might be cheering the boom, not everyone will welcome the idea of even higher prices — especially as Queensland grapples with a housing affordability crisis.
“We recognise that in the current climate of a housing crisis, accessibility and affordability is top of mind for many and property price growth predictions will be met with mixed reactions,” Ms Mercorella said.
“While there is a lot to be positive about with the Olympics, ensuring there’s adequate housing supply and a roof over the head of every Queenslander is a priority that cannot be overlooked.”
* According to CoreLogic, the current median dwelling value in Brisbane is around $894,000, while in Sydney, it is $1.19 million. But if Brisbane were to continue growing at 9.7% annually and Sydney only grew at 1.1% annually, the median dwelling value in Brisbane would be $1.30 million compared with $1.24 million in Sydney in 2029.
