The ACT and Western Australia are likely to see the largest percentage of vendors list their homes in the coming months, according to CoreLogic.
CoreLogic’s new Propensity to List model, which predicts the segment of home loan customers that are likely to list their home for sale in the next three months, found that 2.5 per cent of homes in the ACT are likely to hit the market by August, followed by Perth with 2 per cent vendors looking to sell.
While the tight supply is likely to remain in Sydney, which had the smallest number of vendors looking to list in the next three months, at 0.7 per cent, ahead of Adelaide at 1.1 per cent.
The predictive model analyses pre-listing activity on RP Data in combination with their property database to determine whether vendors might be in the process of listing their property for sale.
CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said at a macro level, there is a higher likelihood for homes across regional Australia to list for sale over the next three months than in capital cities.
“At the end of May, the Propensity to List model showed 2 per cent of regional homes were likely to list for sale before the end of August, up from 1.3 per cent a year ago,” Mr Lawless said.
“A smaller 1.2 per cent of capital city properties were likely to list over the coming months, down from 1.6 per cent a year ago.”
Mr Lawless said across the regional markets, Western Australia stands out with 2.8 per cent of homes likely to list for sale over the coming months, with the council areas of Capel (5 per cent), Bunbury (4.7 per cent), Boddington (4.6 per cent) and Port Hedland (4.6 per cent) topping the list with the highest portion of properties likely to list.
Perth also dominated the capital city council areas that were feeling the most pressure to list, with 4 per cent of properties in Rockingham likely to hit the market in the next three months, followed by Mandurah, Kwinana, Belmont, Wanneroo and Peppermint Grove.
While, Palmerston in Darwin has 3.1 per cent of properties that are likely to list soon, Sorell in Hobart has 2.4 per cent, and Mount Barker in Adelaide has 2.5 per cent.
Mr Lawless said the flow of fresh listings to the Australian housing market has been tracking below the five-year average since September last year, and low stock levels are one of the key factors supporting housing values at the moment.
In the past month, the number of capital city listings was currently 26 per cent below the previous five-year average and the regional listings were 33 per cent below the previous five-year average according to Mr Lawless.
“Even in the current environment of low advertised stock levels amid higher interest rates, we still expect tens of thousands of properties to list in the next couple of months,” he said.
Despite there being a higher likelihood in percentage terms for regional homes to come onto the market in the next couple of months, by volume 56 per cent of new listings will be capital city homes,” Mr Lawless said.
