According to Domain’s analysis of data from the past seven federal elections, neither major political party holds a clear advantage in boosting property market growth.
While Liberal terms saw marginally better house price growth at 3.1 per cent compared to Labor’s 2.9 per cent, Labor governments oversaw stronger unit price growth at 4.5 per cent versus 1.4 per cent under Liberal leadership.
Domain’s Chief of Research and Economics, Dr Nicola Powell, said that the property market is influenced by other factors.
“The property market is shaped by forces beyond politics,” Dr Powell said.
“While elections can affect policy and sentiment, the reality is far more complex than our long-held beliefs suggest.”
Domain’s research also uncovered some surprising insights about auction performance on election days.
Despite sellers typically avoiding scheduling auctions on election days, with auction numbers dropping by 50 per cent, those that do proceed actually achieve higher clearance rates than auctions held on surrounding weekends.
Auctions held on election days recorded an average clearance rate of 60.4 per cent, outperforming those held the Saturday before (59.5 per cent) and after (59.8 per cent) election day.
This suggests that contrary to conventional wisdom, election day might represent an opportunity for sellers rather than a disadvantage.
The research challenges the common perception that elections themselves cause buyers to pause their property purchases.
Domain’s data indicates that property transactions remain historically stable during election periods, suggesting that short-term electoral events don’t significantly disrupt buying behaviour.
However, the analysis does confirm that prolonged political uncertainty can have a meaningful impact on the property market over time.
Domain’s modelling demonstrates that even a one-point increase in political uncertainty can result in a decline of 8.08 property sales, with extended periods of uncertainty potentially leading to thousands of lost transactions.
First home buyer activity also showed variation between different government terms.
Labor governments saw higher first home owner-occupier loans at 34.4 per cent compared to 30.5 per cent during Liberal terms, indicating some policy differences may influence certain segments of the market.
The findings suggest that property investors and homebuyers should focus less on which party is in power and more on fundamental market drivers when making property decisions.
Economic conditions, interest rates, housing supply, and demographic trends likely play more significant roles in determining property market performance than election outcomes.
For sellers concerned about timing their property sale around an election, the research indicates that election day itself might actually present an opportunity due to reduced competition and motivated buyers.
