According to Finder’s latest RBA Cash Rate Survey, 94 per cent of the 34 economists and experts polled expect the central bank to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting.
This is a significant change in sentiment from February when more experts anticipated consecutive rate cuts in 2025.
While most experts predict a hold decision, 18 per cent believe the RBA should actually cut rates in April, pointing to moderating inflation and concerning employment figures.
Mathew Tiller from LJ Hooker Group said that he expects rates to be on hold this month.
“I expect the RBA to hold the cash rate steady in April, with inflation easing and employment still solid, though softening,” Mr Tiller said.
“In property markets, the last rate cut lifted buyer confidence and auction clearance rates, but the sugar hit is now starting to moderate.”
Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo from University of Melbourne said the RBA will likely hold rates steady.
“In explaining its last decision, the Board indicated that it would take a cautious approach to further rate cuts.
Given that the economic data does not currently provide a strong case for further easing, it is likely that the cash rate will remain constant for now,” Mr Greenwood-Nimmo said.
Leanne Pilkington from Laing+Simmons suggested a more aggressive approach might be warranted given recent economic indicators.
“As well as sustained cost of living pressure and moderating inflation, the unexpected hit to employment figures has widened the window of opportunity for the RBA to cut rates, which it is expected to do in coming months anyway. It might be prudent to act now,” Ms Pilkington said.
Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, most experts anticipate a modest easing of monetary policy.
Two-thirds of respondents expect between two and three more cuts this year, while one-third predict just one additional cut for the rest of 2025.
Jeffrey Sheen from Macquarie University was among the minority predicting an April cut, on the back of inflation trends and global economic concerns.
“The headline inflation rate seems settled within the target range,” Mr Sheen said.
“With the escalating global tariff war and the likely weakening of global economic activity, the RBA should act now in anticipation.”
The survey also revealed surprising optimism about how lenders will respond to future rate cuts.
Despite historical evidence showing banks often don’t pass on the full benefit of rate reductions, 93 per cent of experts believe lenders will pass on the next cash rate cut in full to borrowers.
This confidence follows the February rate cut, where over 80 lenders passed on the full 25-basis-point reduction.
This is in contrast with the previous cutting cycle from 2019 to 2020, when major banks passed on between 64 per cent and 78 per cent of the total cuts.
Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said homeowners are eagerly awaiting further relief following February’s rate reduction.
“The February cut signalled a turning point for many cash-strapped borrowers – they hoped a couple more would be coming thick and fast,” Mr Cooke said.
