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Victoria leads Australia’s population growth as housing shortfall looms

New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows Australiaโ€™s population grew by 484,000 people (1.8%) in the year to September 2024, with Victoria leading the way, adding 147,000 new residents.

Despite a slowdown in net overseas migration, now at its lowest level since September 2022, population pressures continue to mount, particularly in high-growth states like Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia.

WA recorded the highest growth rate at 2.5%, followed by Victoria (2.1%) and Queensland (2.0%).

Queensland also maintained its status as the top interstate migration destination, gaining 28,000 new residents from other states, well ahead of WAโ€™s 9,000 interstate arrivals.

With Australiaโ€™s population growth remaining historically high, concerns over housing supply and affordability continue to grow.

Oliver Hume Chief Economist Matt Bell says the latest figures reinforce the urgent need to accelerate new housing development to keep up with demand.

โ€œRecent estimates from the UDIA (Urban Development Institute of Australia) indicate that we are on track to miss the 1.2 million new dwelling target by mid-2029 by around 400,000.

“This will be a tragedy, especially for low and middle-income households who are already struggling to enter the housing market because of high prices and low borrowing capacity,โ€ Mr Bell said.

With official forecasts predicting annual population growth will stabilise at 350,000โ€“370,000 people per year over the next decade, the shortfall in housing construction is expected to worsen unless governments introduce urgent reforms.

โ€œThe pressure is on all levels of government to take significant action to reform new dwelling pathways to enable the market to deliver the housing Australians need. We are looking forward to new federal level initiatives in the upcoming budget and election platforms,โ€ Mr Bell said.

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Catherine Nikas-Boulos

Catherine Nikas-Boulos is the Digital Editor at Elite Agent and has spent the last 20 years covering (and coveting) real estate around the country.