New listings are on the rise in Sydney and Melbourne, but the smaller capital cities could be about to see an influx of new stock according to new data.
According to CoreLogic, new listings have risen by 13.2 per cent over the winter months, driven by a 17.9 per cent rise across the capital cities.
CoreLogic Asia Pacific Research Director Tim Lawless said this year there had been a clear increase in sellers coming to the market, boosted by the uptick in property prices.
“The counter seasonal lift in vendor activity can probably be attributed to the positive turn in housing values across most regions since March alongside historically low advertised supply levels working to boost vendor confidence,” Mr Lawless said.
“Anecdotally, we may also be seeing more home owners needing to sell amid a peak in the ‘fixed rate cliff’, elevated interest rates and high cost of living pressures.
“Data on mortgage arrears continues to show a historically small portion of borrowers are behind on their mortgage repayments, however we are likely to see mortgage stress becoming more evident through the second half of the year.”
According to Mr Lawless, fresh listings are coming to market in most regions, but the lift is generally from a low base and driven by the capital cities.
He said compared to the same period a year ago, new listings are up 1.5 per cent across the combined capitals but down 11.7 per cent across the combined regional markets.
The only capital cities to record a higher number of new listings compared to last year are Sydney (10.9 per cent), Melbourne (9.7 per cent) and the ACT (2.4 per cent).
The remaining capitals have all recorded a rise in the number of new listings through winter, but not enough to push fresh stock levels higher than a year ago or above the previous five-year benchmark.
While across regional Australia, new listings are up 4.6 per cent since the start of winter but are still holding 11.7 per cent below last year’s levels.
Agent activity increasing
Despite the smaller capital cities seeing higher overall stock levels this could be about to change, with new data showing agents activity is starting to rise.
According to Mr Lawless, since the start of July, agent activity was 14.8 per cent higher than at the same time last year, 10 per cent higher than in 2021 and 31 per cent above levels in 2019.
“Although advertised stock levels are the lowest relative to average levels in WA, SA and Queensland, these are the states where real estate agent activity has increased the most over the past four weeks, signalling a rise in fresh listings could be on the way in these regions,” he said.
“Activity from real estate agents was 7.5 per cent higher over the past four weeks in WA, 5.7 per cent higher across SA and up 5.4 per cent in Queensland.”
Mr Laweless said in Tasmania, where stock levels are already elevated, he is also seeing a 6.1 per cent rise in real estate agent activity over the past month.
While in Melbourne and Sydney, where listings are currently higher than average are only seeing a smaller increase in agent activity.
Total supply remains low
Mr Lawless said while the number of new listings is rising across most regions, total advertised supply generally remains tight.
“Since the beginning of winter, total advertised supply has reduced by 3.5 per cent despite a 13.2 per cent rise in the flow of new listings,” he said.
“However, more recently as the flow of new listings gathers some pace, demand hasn’t quite kept pace.
“The past four weeks has seen advertised stock levels edging 0.3 per cent higher, led by a 2.2 per cent rise in total listings across the capitals and offset by a 2.2 per cent fall across the combined regional areas.”
He said Sydney has led the rise in total advertised stock levels, up 5.3 per cent in the past month, followed by Melbourne (4.4 per cent) and Canberra (4.3 per cent).
Only two capital cities have recorded total advertised stock levels higher than at the same time last year: Hobart (22.1 per cent) and Canberra (1.2 per cent).
Mr Lawless said, while total listings are rising it’s not the case in Perth, where total listing numbers are trending lower alongside a relatively flat trend in fresh listings and above-average purchasing activity.
Advertised stock across Perth is now 44.9 per cent below the previous five-year average, while Adelaide (down 41.8 per cent) and Brisbane (down 40.1 per cent) are also seeing tight stock levels.
Mr Lawless said the cities with the tightest stock levels are seeing solid growth with prices rising 1.2 per cent in Perth over the past four weeks, 1.4 per cent in Brisbane and 1.5 per cent across Adelaide.
